The Lives of Nations

The United States is 229 years old as of this writing. It has entered its third century as a nation on Earth. We have endured the growth pains of youth, the self-inflicted wounds of civil war, and the struggles of fighting for freedom in the larger world. In our lifetime, America has prospered economically for the most part, and has spread prosperity and wealth around the world through the propagation of capitalism and freedom, or some cases simply gifts of money. We are the economic light of the world and anyone who wants to earn maximum wealth cannot ignore us.

But how long can the United States last? That seems a heretical question, for patriotism and pride excludes any thought that our great experiment in freedom might fail. There have been many nations, some come and go in the blink of an eye. Italy has had more governments since World War II than the moon has craters. South Korean legislators have had as many fistfights. Who’s to say that our country will last forever?

In studying world history, one finds that nations do not last forever. Sometimes they rise and fall in revolution, as with Iran in 1979. Sometimes they morph from one form to another with less bloodletting, as with the USSR and its satellites in 1989. But the pattern of change is forever, and the only questions of history are how long and why.

Then it is prudent for us to ask the same question of the US. Not only prudent, but ignoring this question balances us on the pinnacle of folly, ready to be toppled into the abyss by the slightest change in the wind. Let’s look at this question.

The big problem when examining this question is finding examples of the national life cycle that are not too polluted by outside influences. As an extreme example, if a meteor were to strike the eastern seaboard of the US, America would be crippled for decades, but this would be a freak event, uncontrolled from within our society and not directly the fault of Howard Stern or the FCC. We need good examples of national life cycles that are self contained and not influenced by invasions or boulders from space.

Fortunately, we have such examples in China, which has an extensive written history and numerous dynasties which to study. Don’t worry; I’m not going to turn this in to a dry, academic discussion of dynastic cycles. We are going to look at the simplified pattern that has been played out many, many times in China and speculate about how that parallels the situation in the US.

It turns out that many Chinese dynasties lasted about three centuries. The progression was typically:

First century: Period of growth and enlightenment, industrially and culturally

This period followed the change to the new dynasty, and was typically marked by changes in governmental structure, for example, moving from a feudal system to a pyramid-type bureaucracy. Cultural, religious and industrial progress was made apace.

Second century: Slowing of growth and consolidation of the gains made previously

This period saw less change and innovation, but was marked by domestic peace and the opportunity of the population to grow and prosper normally.

Third century: Increase in government corruption; popular discontent; revolution and replacement of the leadership

Entrenched governmental institutions bred corruption in this period, and the result was a decrease in efficiency of government operation, the loss of confidence of the people, and ultimately weakness which was exploited by usurpers, ushering the next dynasty, sometimes with decades of war intervening.

These cycles are remarkably regular, and happened repeatedly over about a two thousand year period. Some cycles were shorter than three hundred years, and some longer, but the pattern remains.

Now we have to ask ourselves whether Chinese culture is significantly different from American culture to devalue the comparison. Certainly a one to one comparison cannot be made. However, this pattern of the rise and fall of nations and power centers can be seen in ancient Egypt, in Rome, and in the countries of Europe in recent centuries. The pattern is:

• build a nation on new ideals
• grow and accumulate national wealth and power
• decay and collapse under the weight of corruption and obesity

Pick just about any nation that has come and gone and you will see this cycle. How about Germany in the 20th century? Hitler built a new nation on his fascist ideals, Germany became an almost unbeatable industrial and military power, but Hitler’s lust for power and opening a two-front war caused Germany to fail spectacularly.

Take the USSR as another example. The Bolshevik Revolution brought Lenin and Trotsky to power. Their new ideals led them to crush and kill their opposition, the non-Communists (I did not say the national ideals were necessarily good!). The USSR grew and became a world power for about seven decades, but we know that within it was a mass of slow growing bureaucratic malignancy. Ultimately, it was unable to react to the increasing furor and literal hunger of its citizens, and it collapsed, as many of us watched on television.

In the Iranian revolution of the late 1970’s, the Islamic fundamentalists recognized that the Shah of Iran, supported by the United States, had become merely a puppet, and their country was not progressing in the religious and moral direction they wished. They saw their government and rulers as corrupt and fatted with American wealth, so they started another national cycle. Interesting how the cycle is the same, regardless the perceptions of the citizens who power its relentless motion!

In America, the English settlers built a new nation based in part on the desire for wealth, and in part on the hunger for religious freedom. Those were the new ideals. The settlers and colonists grew and multiplied, and their collective wealth with it. However, the English monarchy laid a heavier and heavier burden of taxation, tariff and regulation on the colonies, to the point that their government collapsed in an armed insurrection. That cycle lasted only about 169 years from the founding of the first English settlement in Virginia.

The pattern is clear. What can we learn from it regarding the United States?

Just comparing the 300-year dynastic cycle with America’s timeline puts us in the latter third of the trip. From 1776 to 1876, we built a nation on new ideals, conquered lands and made treaties for territory, laid railroad from coast to coast, and saw the birth of communications networks.

From 1876 to 1976 we saw the industrialization of America, and the decline of family farming and agriculture in favor of agribusiness. We consolidated the gains we had made, using transportation and communications networks to build industries, wealth and power in the hands of many Americans. We explored space. With a few exceptions, each decade saw individual economic opportunity increase.

Since 1976 and the invention of the computer chip, technology has changed every aspect of our lives, sometimes even for the better! But disturbing trends are starting to emerge indicating that our society is not as healthy as it may seem.

Domestic terrorism is one indicator. Timothy McVeigh’s attack on the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City is the best example. Here we have a home grown boy, indoctrinated by our own military to service and duty, making a violent public statement about his hatred for our government and the largesse it wields. The rise of separatist or isolationist groups such as private militias and David Koresh’s Branch Davidians indicates rot in our society.

The Klan and Neo Nazis are active in our country, agitating against people on racial and religious grounds.  God fearing people agree these grounds are contrived and wrong, yet their beliefs do not die.

Our own government is showing more and more signs of internal decay. Congress is a laughingstock in so many ways, from the House Bank Scandal, to geriatric Senators giving blathering speeches that cause us to question their medication selections. If there is any question of government abuse or corruption, then our assumption as citizens is “guilty until proven innocent.”

Recent court decisions make levelheaded people shudder. The Massachusetts Supreme Court recently decided a case involving gay marriage by directing the Massachusetts legislature to make a law allowing such behavior. My reading of the Constitution tells me that such a ruling is in contempt of the founding principles of our nation, regardless of our position on gay marriage.

Do you know that over one million abortions are performed every year? I have never met anyone who was “pro-abortion,” though they may exist. Even people who are pro-choice agree that abortion should be prevented if possible, through birth control, family planning and common sense. How can a culture that kills a million babies a year survive? How can a culture that carelessly conceives a million babies a year survive? We cannot even control our own genitalia.

I think that the pattern is emerging clearly: America is in the final phase of its national cycle. Is there something we can do? Let’s look at the causes of some of this decay and, later, how you the Producer can save our bacon.